Sunday flagged AMD and Arm as the week's AI spending verdict. One delivered clean. The other beat and dropped. Here is where the threads land heading into tomorrow.
AMD: $10.3B revenue, up 38% year-over-year. Data center up 57%. EPS of $1.37 against a $1.25 estimate. Q2 guidance above consensus. Stock moved 16%. The AI spending question is answered. It is accelerating.
Arm beat EPS and fell 7%. On the call they disclosed they cannot secure enough supply to fulfill an additional $1 billion in new AGI CPU demand. That is not a demand miss. Supply cannot keep pace with what is being ordered. Demand is real.
Dow closed Wednesday at 49,910, up 612 points, and pulled back 300-plus Thursday. The call wall at 50,000 held again. Iran is still not a confirmed deal. Trump walked it back Wednesday night. Oil bounced back above $95 after trading near $91 this morning. One announcement is not an agreement. JT said that Sunday and it is still true.
The Read
AMD confirmed the AI thesis. The Dow is back at the ceiling. Iran is unresolved. NFP prints at 8:30 tomorrow. Thursday is the tape waiting. Friday is the event.
Wednesday's 612-point session had a short squeeze element to it. Large specs were adding to their DJIA short heading into this week per Sunday's COT read. AMD and Iran deal talk hit the same session. That combination forces covers. Forced unwind adds fuel that fundamentals alone do not explain. Thursday's pullback is the honest tape.
My plan has not changed. I am not trading the NFP print. I want the setup that forms after the number settles: pullback to structure, retest of the M1 200 EMA, holds. The gamma flip at 48,241 is the floor. Above it, dealers absorb the move. Below it, the tape gets directional. The trade, if it sets up, is in the second hour Friday.
JT Smith
Founder | Steady Edge Trading
steadyedgetrading.com
See TREPP applied to Friday's NFP setup in real time.
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