Every Sunday Macro Brief and Thursday Mid-Week Read. COT data, dealer gamma levels, volatility regime, and JT's take on the week. Free to read, every week.
Hot NFP sent the Nasdaq down 4.77%. The S&P closed in negative gamma on the 7,400 wall. CPI and the FOMC land the same day Thursday. The index rank held.
→The Dow hit a record while Broadcom's unchanged AI outlook took the chip complex down 12%. The rotation the COT data flagged Sunday played out in four days. Scorecard: 3 for 3.
→Asset managers flipped Dow net long after weeks of shorting the record. Hedge funds added 50,843 more S&P shorts. NFP Friday is the resolver.
→PCE hit 3.8%, a three-year high. GDP missed. The S&P and Nasdaq closed at all-time highs the same afternoon. Friday trades. The streak is nine weeks if it holds.
→Memorial Day Monday closes the market. S&P 27 points from the 7,500 call wall. Nasdaq cleared its wall Friday. Eight straight winning weeks. The back half of this week carries all the weight.
→NVIDIA cleared the bar. The tape didn't move.
→PPI printed 1.4% MoM, the largest advance since March 2022. Asset managers turned net short on the Dow while staying long the S&P and Nasdaq in size. Dow sitting on the gamma flip at 49,357. Three independent catalysts: PMIs, FOMC minutes, and Nvidia earnings all hit Thursday. JT's read on the stacked session and how to size into it.
→Both inflation prints came in hot. CPI at 3.8%, PPI at 1.4% month-over-month, the largest advance since March 2022. Cisco lifted AI infrastructure orders from $5B to $9B overnight. The Dow ripped 370 points to 50,063 and S&P and Nasdaq both printed fresh all-time highs. JT's read on whether the breakout holds Friday.
→Dow closed right on the 49,600 put wall. Three Tier 1 prints this week starting with CPI Tuesday. Hedge funds added to shorts even as price pushed toward 50,000. Positive gamma caps the ceiling at 50,000. JT's Trader's Read on gamma, COT, and volatility, and what the data means for your entries this week.
→AMD beat huge. Arm beat EPS and dropped on supply constraints. Dow back at the 50K ceiling. Iran still not a deal. NFP prints tomorrow. JT's plan for Friday.
→Dow touched 50,000 on Friday and could not close above it. Large spec short on DJIA futures grew by 2,275 contracts into the strength. COT read, gamma flip at 48,241, and JT's plan for what may be the biggest data week of the quarter.
→Meta and Alphabet beat estimates. The Nasdaq ripped. The Dow barely moved. That gap is not a coincidence. Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft report tonight. Here is what the tape is saying before the prints.
→The COT read is the story this week. Leveraged funds are aggressively short the Dow going into the heaviest earnings week of the quarter. Dealer gamma, volatility regime, and what Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft mean for the TREPP setup.
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