S&P 500 7,483.23 +1.8% wk | Nasdaq 100 29,450 +1.1% wk | Dow 52,900.07 record, +2.0% | 10-Yr 4.48% jobs cool | WTI $67.80 soft |
The selloff that split the tape last week reversed, the Dow ran to a fresh record on a cooler jobs print, and the one call that missed was the downside bet on tech.
Sunday’s Index Rank read the tape as a rotation and put the Dow at the top: rank one, up bias, the only index still holding positive gamma. The week paid that call off. The Dow climbed all four sessions and closed Thursday at a record 52,900, up nearly two percent on the week, with the biggest push coming on the June jobs report itself. Payrolls rose just 57,000 against a forecast near 115,000, prior months were revised lower, and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2 percent. A cooler labor read cools the case for more Fed hikes, and the bid ran straight to the rate-sensitive Dow.
The S&P 500 held its up bias too, recovering with the tape to close near 7,483 and never threatening its 7,300 floor. The miss was the Nasdaq. Ranked third with a down bias below its 29,156 flip, it did the opposite: it found a floor right at that flip and rebounded, closing the week green even as chip names slipped again on Thursday. Ten-year yields eased to about 4.48 percent on the jobs data. This was the recovery week, and the rank called two of its three legs.
The Read
Two of three landed. The Dow led exactly as ranked, all the way to a record, and the S&P held its up bias. The rank’s one miss was the Nasdaq, where the 29,156 flip we tagged as the downside trigger became the floor instead and the index turned higher. Levels first: the flip did its job, just in the other direction. Scored Monday through Thursday.
The call I want to sit with is the one that landed. Sunday ranked the Dow first and up while tech was still bleeding, and it took a record close to prove the point. That is what reading structure at the instrument level buys you. When the Nasdaq is broken and the Dow is firm, those are two different decisions, and this week the firm one was the trade.
The miss is worth as much as the hit. I had the Nasdaq down below its flip, and instead it reclaimed the line and turned higher. That is the whole discipline in one move: the flip is the trigger, and when price takes it back the thesis is done. No arguing with it. Into next week I want to see whether tech holds the reclaim or hands it back. Next rank posts Sunday. JT
JT Smith
Founder | Steady Edge Trading
steadyedgetrading.com
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Sunday Index Rank — How It Played Out
| 2 FOR 3 |
The Dow led to a record and the S&P 500 held its up bias. The Nasdaq 100’s down call missed as it reclaimed its flip and turned higher. Scored Monday through Thursday.
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| The rank scores every week, win or lose. Green when the call lands, red when it misses. These are the receipts. |
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