Every Sunday Macro Brief and Thursday Mid-Week Read, free to read in full. Sunday lays out the data: COT positioning, which way the largest futures traders are leaning, dealer gamma levels, the price zones where market makers are forced to buy or sell, the volatility regime, and the week's catalysts. Thursday then grades that read against what the tape actually did.
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Inside the SET Discord, Sunday's data turns into a ranked call: the three micro index futures ranked one through three, each with a directional bias, the direction the read expects price to lean, and an invalidation level, the one price that proves the call wrong. Everyone sees that call graded in Thursday's free Mid-Week Read. Members get it on Sunday, while there is still a week left to trade it.
Get Sunday's call in the SET Discord →An empty calendar got thin. Crude settled above $100, the 10-year closed at its highest since 2023, and all three index calls finished lower. Steady Edge Trading reads the week and scores the Index Rank zero for three.
→Payrolls came in at nearly three times consensus and the S&P 500 gave back 0.38%. All three indexes sit above their gamma flip, the Dow by less than half a percent, and the week holds two empty sessions before CPI lands Friday.
→An oil shock repriced rates and the index with the least room gave way first. Steady Edge Trading reads the week the Dow lost its line, and scores the Index Rank one for three.
→All three indexes closed above their gamma flip in positive gamma, but every one of them has momentum rolling over. The S&P sits twelve points above its put wall with August payrolls due Friday.
→July 13 to August 28 in full. The Dow and the S&P netted about one percent while the Nasdaq 100 fell 8.83 percent and rallied 10.64 percent off its low. Dispersion was the whole story.
→The rotation reversed and the tape healed: all three indexes reclaimed their gamma flips as the Dow printed a record on a cooler June jobs report. FOMC minutes Wednesday are the week's swing factor.
→The selloff that split the tape reversed: the Dow ran to a record on a cooler jobs print while tech steadied and reclaimed its flip. Scorecard: 2 for 3.
→A tech-led selloff rotated the tape: the Dow held green while the Nasdaq and S&P slipped below their gamma flips into negative gamma. The catalyst is a pulled-forward jobs report on Thursday, into a holiday-shortened trading week.
→A semiconductor selloff broke the high flyers below their levels while the Dow held its line and closed the week green. Scorecard: 1 for 3.
→A hawkish June FOMC repriced the tape to higher for longer. All three indexes pulled back but held in positive gamma above their flips, with flash PMIs Tuesday and Core PCE Thursday the catalysts.
→Record highs on Monday, a hawkish Fed on Wednesday, and a tape that bent without breaking. Scorecard: 2 for 3.
→The Iran-deal reversal sent all three indexes to new highs. Gamma flipped positive, vol compressed, and asset managers turned net short the Dow into a holiday-shortened week.
→Sunday called all three indexes lower and set the invalidation lines. Through Thursday's close, not one broke on a closing basis and the bias held. Scorecard: 3 for 3.
→Hot NFP sent the Nasdaq down 4.77%. The S&P closed in negative gamma on the 7,400 wall. CPI and the FOMC land the same day Thursday. The index rank held.
→The Dow hit a record while Broadcom's unchanged AI outlook took the chip complex down 12%. The rotation the COT data flagged Sunday played out in four days. Scorecard: 3 for 3.
→Asset managers flipped Dow net long after weeks of shorting the record. Hedge funds added 50,843 more S&P shorts. NFP Friday is the resolver.
→PCE hit 3.8%, a three-year high. GDP missed. The S&P and Nasdaq closed at all-time highs the same afternoon. Friday trades. The streak is nine weeks if it holds.
→Memorial Day Monday closes the market. S&P 27 points from the 7,500 call wall. Nasdaq cleared its wall Friday. Eight straight winning weeks. The back half of this week carries all the weight.
→NVIDIA cleared the bar. The tape didn't move.
→PPI printed 1.4% MoM, the largest advance since March 2022. Asset managers turned net short on the Dow while staying long the S&P and Nasdaq in size. Dow sitting on the gamma flip at 49,357. Three independent catalysts: PMIs, FOMC minutes, and Nvidia earnings all hit Thursday. JT's read on the stacked session and how to size into it.
→Both inflation prints came in hot. CPI at 3.8%, PPI at 1.4% month-over-month, the largest advance since March 2022. Cisco lifted AI infrastructure orders from $5B to $9B overnight. The Dow ripped 370 points to 50,063 and S&P and Nasdaq both printed fresh all-time highs. JT's read on whether the breakout holds Friday.
→Dow closed right on the 49,600 put wall. Three Tier 1 prints this week starting with CPI Tuesday. Hedge funds added to shorts even as price pushed toward 50,000. Positive gamma caps the ceiling at 50,000. JT's Trader's Read on gamma, COT, and volatility, and what the data means for your entries this week.
→AMD beat huge. Arm beat EPS and dropped on supply constraints. Dow back at the 50K ceiling. Iran still not a deal. NFP prints tomorrow. JT's plan for Friday.
→Dow touched 50,000 on Friday and could not close above it. Large spec short on DJIA futures grew by 2,275 contracts into the strength. COT read, gamma flip at 48,241, and JT's plan for what may be the biggest data week of the quarter.
→Meta and Alphabet beat estimates. The Nasdaq ripped. The Dow barely moved. That gap is not a coincidence. Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft report tonight. Here is what the tape is saying before the prints.
→The COT read is the story this week. Leveraged funds are aggressively short the Dow going into the heaviest earnings week of the quarter. Dealer gamma, volatility regime, and what Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft mean for the TREPP setup.
→The briefs show the work every week. The Forge is where you learn to do it: a rules-based system, then scored practice that grades the decision instead of the money.
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