S&P 500 7,563.63 ATH | Nasdaq 30,223.89 ATH | Dow 50,668.97 | 10-Yr Yield 4.50% | Crude (WTI) $92.25 |
The S&P punched through the 7,500 call wall flagged in Sunday's brief on Tuesday's gap open and never looked back. The Iran deal announcement drove the open. By Thursday, fresh US strikes were back on tape, then Axios reported a 60-day ceasefire extension pending Trump approval. Oil reversed. Equities held. Both the S&P and Nasdaq closed at all-time highs.
PCE arrived Thursday at 3.8% year-on-year, the highest reading in nearly three years. Core PCE 3.3%. Q1 GDP's second estimate revised to 1.6%, missing the 2.0% consensus. Jobless claims ticked up to 215,000. Market pricing has moved to rates unchanged through year-end, with some economists calling for a hike before a cut. The tape posted two record closes the same afternoon.
Snowflake gained 36.5% Thursday, its best single day on record, after a 33% revenue beat and a $6 billion AWS commitment over five years. Microsoft added 3.5%. Goldman Sachs raised its S&P year-end target to 8,000 on Wednesday. The Dow added 25 points for the week through Thursday. The S&P added 90. The Nasdaq crossed 30,000 for the first time.
The Read
PCE at 3.8% Thursday is a three-year high. GDP missed consensus. Rates stay higher, possibly all year. The S&P and Nasdaq closed at records the same afternoon the data landed. Either AI capex earnings override every macro input right now, or this market is one session from discovering that data still matters. Friday trades. The streak is nine weeks if it holds.
PCE at 3.8% is the number that should stop this rally. It didn't. The AI capex cycle is the only bid the market is responding to right now, and Snowflake's AWS deal Thursday made that explicit. Thirty-three percent revenue growth, a $6 billion commitment from Amazon, and the stock posts its best single day on record. That is what this market is pricing. The risk is simple: one major AI earnings miss and the market discovers data still has teeth.
The Iran pattern ran to script again. Four imminent deals since February, four waves of contradictions. The Axios 60-day ceasefire report Thursday is deal number five, still pending Trump approval. Hormuz remains jammed. Oil dropped on the week anyway. The market is treating Iran as a volatility event, not a trend. That framing works until a deal is actually signed or the strikes escalate to a level the tape cannot absorb. Friday is still live. Watch how the close prints.
JT Smith
Founder | Steady Edge Trading
steadyedgetrading.com
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